How it went
This is how I feel about the week. Too many mistakes this week, and I'm not where I want to be yet.
Today was better, but I’m still not being crisp with my trade decisions. I’m getting into the moves at secondary entries and not leveraging the Market Profile and Pivot levels like I should. Today's price action "felt" like we were knocking a pinball around.
Trade Log of My Trades. Trade Pos. Entry Exit Entry Time Exit Time Result
1A Long 1504.75 1505.75 5/11/2007 9:38 5/11/2007 9:48 1
1B Long 1504.75 1508.75 5/11/2007 9:38 5/11/2007 10:04 4
1B Long 1504.75 1508.75 5/11/2007 9:38 5/11/2007 10:04 4
2A Long 1508 1507.5 5/11/2007 10:21 5/11/2007 10:25 -0.5
2B Long 1508 1507.5 5/11/2007 10:21 5/11/2007 10:25 -0.5
3A Long 1507 1506 5/11/2007 10:48 5/11/2007 10:51 -1
3B Long 1507 1506 5/11/2007 10:48 5/11/2007 10:51 -1
4A Long 1506.75 1506.75 5/11/2007 11:31 5/11/2007 11:47 0
4B Long 1506.75 1506.75 5/11/2007 11:31 5/11/2007 11:47 0
5A Long 1507 1508 5/11/2007 12:05 5/11/2007 12:26 1
5B Long 1507 1507 5/11/2007 12:05 5/11/2007 12:48 0
My Take
First half: +0.50 Second Half: +2.5
2B Long 1508 1507.5 5/11/2007 10:21 5/11/2007 10:25 -0.5
3A Long 1507 1506 5/11/2007 10:48 5/11/2007 10:51 -1
3B Long 1507 1506 5/11/2007 10:48 5/11/2007 10:51 -1
4A Long 1506.75 1506.75 5/11/2007 11:31 5/11/2007 11:47 0
4B Long 1506.75 1506.75 5/11/2007 11:31 5/11/2007 11:47 0
5A Long 1507 1508 5/11/2007 12:05 5/11/2007 12:26 1
5B Long 1507 1507 5/11/2007 12:05 5/11/2007 12:48 0
My Take
First half: +0.50 Second Half: +2.5
Trade Narrative and thoughts about My Trades
My setups take some time to develop in the morning. It is usually 20 – 30 minutes before my first trade. I do my best to place the first trade in the direction with what the initial trend. I’d call this the first Micro trend of the day. So I resisted shorting the Pivot. But I saw it in real time. :-) And it was a decent trade. :-(
I’ll be doing more pivot research this weekend. If I add some hind site to the evaluation, the 1505.50 was also a Market Profile levels as well that the bears should try to hold. That should have put the Pivot short in the must try category for today.
Trade 1 - Had a “weak” long signal at 1501.50 and I was just a little late to catch it. Then when we broke above the Pivot, I should have got long there. I had two signals as price was bouncing on the pivot and then a third just under 1505. Technically I jumped in long just ahead of this signal. I though I saw the signs of the market wanting to take-off to the upside. I almost bailed when price hesitated for a few minutes, but then I saw the next long signal and decided to hold on. Yes, I did bail on the 1st half a little early, but I’m happy with what I got out of the second half.
Trade 2 – I was not real excited about this trade. I was going to pass on playing the short side of any retracement right here. But for some crazy reason I jumped into this trade at an aggressive entry. I touch of patience and I’d have entered a half point better. It still would have been a scratch trade, but not a small loser. I bailed quickly on this as I wanted to seem more strength or I felt price was going to retrace more.
Trade 3 – Did it again. Got in at too aggressive of a price point. This is a slow part of the day and there was not a reason to rush. I had another Market Profile level at 1505.75 and I think I was trying to get in there for a bounce. Right idea, but as I chased the entry and did not wait for a “back and fill” that the ES is known for to enter on.
A real touch of the price level was given and I don’t believe where I placed my stop. Usually I have at least 1 tick and often 2 below the last swing low. A stop there was inside my risk tolerance for this trade, but somewhere along the way I tightened the stop and now I’m out in the Stop run. :-(
Walked away to clear my head. When I got back I felt I missed the 11:10 CT touch of 1505.75 to get long. Missed the second touch too about 5 minutes later. It really looks like this area could hold.
Trade 4 - I took the next signal and now I’m back long at a higher price again, Touched 1 point in favor, did not fill my close target for the first half, I decided to protect at break even and almost immediately after moving my stop price slammed lower fast. Out at BE.
Trade 5 – While I was trying to see if “I missed something” and if I thought price was going lower or higher right here. I decided that that last Slam down on price that took out my last trade was a stop run and I still believe price is going higher here.
To me it looked like a pattern I have seen before. Where before making a significant price move (in this case higher) there is a "show of strength" in the opposite direction and like before a “1 Tick lower low” is put in before going higher. To me the “real low” was put in just before 11:00 CT and the price action for the next hour was just playing and trying to get people to think price is going lower.
Long story short, I’m long, but for the third time missed the entry I should have had. This one will hurt if I’m wrong and price is not going higher. (My pride is what will get hurt) The biggest risk is that the afternoon just gets choppy and I’m long too close to the top.
The Volume Delta accumulation is climbing. Someone is buying here, but price is holding or dropping slightly if anything. Ticks are holding mostly positive, but I’d like to see a push higher. The “relative highs” in the VB Accumulation compares to prior price highs at this same accumulation level. The time factor is starting to wear on me in this trade. Finally, here we go. Trailed 1st stop to +1. Out half at +1. Now we wait and see if price is going anywhere this afternoon. Well… Out +0 for the second half. I held my stop at –0.25, the market would touch my entry of 1507, then bids would come back in at 1507.25. That happened many times.
Then I saw the bid number at 1507 jump to over 2000 then go back down a few times. I know the contracts did not sell, but too often when I see that “game” in the Dome, price goes to the number where the “Dome Games” were being played. That spooked me out. Price did finally tick lower, just a lot slower than I thought.
I could have taken the second half off at 1 point (or slightly better) a few times, but I was willing to see if this would hold and go higher for me. With some hind site added, I’d say I should have taken 1 point after 10 minutes of not being able to make a higher high because I got in at a higher entry price. Price dipped down and would have knocked out a trade at the “better” entry as well, but did not make a 1 Tick lower low this time.
Well price did what I thought and pressed higher. Went higher than I might have expected. I just could not hold on, and stopped trying to get back in. Once again I could have made more staying in the game longer.
I’ll be doing more pivot research this weekend. If I add some hind site to the evaluation, the 1505.50 was also a Market Profile levels as well that the bears should try to hold. That should have put the Pivot short in the must try category for today.
Trade 1 - Had a “weak” long signal at 1501.50 and I was just a little late to catch it. Then when we broke above the Pivot, I should have got long there. I had two signals as price was bouncing on the pivot and then a third just under 1505. Technically I jumped in long just ahead of this signal. I though I saw the signs of the market wanting to take-off to the upside. I almost bailed when price hesitated for a few minutes, but then I saw the next long signal and decided to hold on. Yes, I did bail on the 1st half a little early, but I’m happy with what I got out of the second half.
Trade 2 – I was not real excited about this trade. I was going to pass on playing the short side of any retracement right here. But for some crazy reason I jumped into this trade at an aggressive entry. I touch of patience and I’d have entered a half point better. It still would have been a scratch trade, but not a small loser. I bailed quickly on this as I wanted to seem more strength or I felt price was going to retrace more.
Trade 3 – Did it again. Got in at too aggressive of a price point. This is a slow part of the day and there was not a reason to rush. I had another Market Profile level at 1505.75 and I think I was trying to get in there for a bounce. Right idea, but as I chased the entry and did not wait for a “back and fill” that the ES is known for to enter on.
A real touch of the price level was given and I don’t believe where I placed my stop. Usually I have at least 1 tick and often 2 below the last swing low. A stop there was inside my risk tolerance for this trade, but somewhere along the way I tightened the stop and now I’m out in the Stop run. :-(
Walked away to clear my head. When I got back I felt I missed the 11:10 CT touch of 1505.75 to get long. Missed the second touch too about 5 minutes later. It really looks like this area could hold.
Trade 4 - I took the next signal and now I’m back long at a higher price again, Touched 1 point in favor, did not fill my close target for the first half, I decided to protect at break even and almost immediately after moving my stop price slammed lower fast. Out at BE.
Trade 5 – While I was trying to see if “I missed something” and if I thought price was going lower or higher right here. I decided that that last Slam down on price that took out my last trade was a stop run and I still believe price is going higher here.
To me it looked like a pattern I have seen before. Where before making a significant price move (in this case higher) there is a "show of strength" in the opposite direction and like before a “1 Tick lower low” is put in before going higher. To me the “real low” was put in just before 11:00 CT and the price action for the next hour was just playing and trying to get people to think price is going lower.
Long story short, I’m long, but for the third time missed the entry I should have had. This one will hurt if I’m wrong and price is not going higher. (My pride is what will get hurt) The biggest risk is that the afternoon just gets choppy and I’m long too close to the top.
The Volume Delta accumulation is climbing. Someone is buying here, but price is holding or dropping slightly if anything. Ticks are holding mostly positive, but I’d like to see a push higher. The “relative highs” in the VB Accumulation compares to prior price highs at this same accumulation level. The time factor is starting to wear on me in this trade. Finally, here we go. Trailed 1st stop to +1. Out half at +1. Now we wait and see if price is going anywhere this afternoon. Well… Out +0 for the second half. I held my stop at –0.25, the market would touch my entry of 1507, then bids would come back in at 1507.25. That happened many times.
Then I saw the bid number at 1507 jump to over 2000 then go back down a few times. I know the contracts did not sell, but too often when I see that “game” in the Dome, price goes to the number where the “Dome Games” were being played. That spooked me out. Price did finally tick lower, just a lot slower than I thought.
I could have taken the second half off at 1 point (or slightly better) a few times, but I was willing to see if this would hold and go higher for me. With some hind site added, I’d say I should have taken 1 point after 10 minutes of not being able to make a higher high because I got in at a higher entry price. Price dipped down and would have knocked out a trade at the “better” entry as well, but did not make a 1 Tick lower low this time.
Well price did what I thought and pressed higher. Went higher than I might have expected. I just could not hold on, and stopped trying to get back in. Once again I could have made more staying in the game longer.
Thoughts About Today
Lessons Learned - Or still needing to reinforce
Luke, use the “Pivot and Market Profile” force. I must take more trades off of these key levels. Expect price to bounce when first approaching these levels.
I also need to not “Rush” my entries. In a fast market you just need to get in, but still need to be careful about the entry price. In the typical price action, I can benefit from the back and fill nature of the ES and get a slightly better entry.
I’ll be reviewing these as much as I can this Mother’s Day weekend.
I also need to not “Rush” my entries. In a fast market you just need to get in, but still need to be careful about the entry price. In the typical price action, I can benefit from the back and fill nature of the ES and get a slightly better entry.
I’ll be reviewing these as much as I can this Mother’s Day weekend.
Trade Wise, Trade Well
John
1 comment:
Check this guy's blog daily, it's pretty good.
http://highprobability.blogspot.com/
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