Not My Best Day

Tuesday 5/8/2007 ES Futures

How it went

Not a good day for me today. I started out thinking good. My initial read was to get short, but I did not find setups that I liked. Then my signals started telling me to try some long trades. Here is where I got out of synch for today. I found myself still “wanting” to be short.

On the positive side – I was able to develop my average volume indicator. Please review my earlier post for more details. I’m sure it is hard to see the finer details, as is the rest of the chart (but until someone asks for better…) details. It’s the Blue line in with the volume.

While there are 1-minute spikes above the “average volume” level, you can see plenty of space more often than not between the Average level and the top of the volume bar. This tells us that volume was lower than average again today.



Trade Log of My Trades.

Trade Pos. Entry Exit Entry Time Exit Time Result

No actual trades. :-(

Trade Narrative and thoughts about My Trades

To start today - The NYSE Tick was the weakest that I can remember for some time now. That had me “anxious” to find a good point to get short. I could have settled for a couple of “ok” short entries, but nothing jumped out and said “get short here” to me.

I wanted to short just above 1510, but I did not have a “real” signal yet. So I waited. Darn, that trade is working. Then price consolidated just under 1509. Again I wanted to be short. I was "hoping" for a “head fake” to the long side so I could short that move, but we never got one. Looks like I still need to get ride of "Hope" in my trading. :-(

As my feelings of “missing out” started building I could tell I was not thinking as clear as I need to be. Now I start getting overly cautious wanting to make sure my “read” was correct and that my “emotions” are not trying to get me to take the “Hope” it works entry signal.

Trapped by the 62’s – Two 62% Fibonacci retracements that is. The first is drawn from the high after the open down to the low of the day. See the dark purple line on the chart above. The second was from the low of the day up to the swing high just before 10:00 CT. See the light purple line on the chart.

Price was trapped for over an hour and a half. I had a caution light, but my signals were telling me to try some long trades. There were too many signals for me to not try any. Either long or short, I should have tried some entries. Obviously the long side won out in the end. Big surprise right.

When price broke to the upside, we received the first NYSE Tick reading above 900. Now lets see if this is a sign of strength or the last stop run before going lower.

Sim it is - That is it. I’m going into simulation mode so that I’ll at least take some trades. I’m a little leery of a long here, but I should have been taking long entries for some time now. Will it continue? I have to get myself in synch. Sim long at 1512 shortly after 13:40 CT. Well… I got over protective when NYSE Tick pressed to highs twice and price action could not get moving back to the up side. Out at break even.

Forcing it – That last trade was a long signal, but I had warning indications of a possible turn and now I feel I should have been short instead. Am I just forcing myself to pull the trigger now? I try to minimize trades this late in the day, but since it is sim and I’m primarily trying to get back in synch I’m siming a short at 1512 shortly after 14:00 CT. When the NYSE Tick slammed down to a low at 14:09, shot back up at 14:10, and price had not done much I decided taking dumb trades late in the day would not help. Just close out the trade.

Done for the day. :-(

Thoughts About Today

Muted price action had me off today. Price did move, but I felt the swings were tighter than I like to see. I feel this contributed to my feelings of wanting to see better signals to take trades.

After passing on some questionable signals that ended up working I became more conflicted. I was having a harder time distinguishing a signal I should take from a signal I “Hoped” would work and wanted to take. By the time I figured out the trade I wanted, no “decent” second chance entries were offered. All I could have done was “Jump-On” the move.

I’m starting to think I have too many “unfiltered” indicators on my chart. I know I can not take all the signals (red and green arrows and dots on the chart) as trade entries. But I’m filtering too many out and I still have more signals that have not been coded into an indicator.

That said, I definitely need to get into more trades. Nothing ventured nothing gained.

Lessons Learned - Or still needing to reinforce

One of the biggest lessons for today is still to trust my signals. As price action wedged from 10:00 - 11:00 CT I started doubting the long side more. My entries are good the majority of times. When I’m “wrong” about the trend either turning or continuing I have a good chance of protecting the trade at or just better than break even or even bailing on the trade for a small loss.

There were a couple of points where I found myself saying I should be in the “last” trade. Right or wrong, I need to take more entries, do not force entries, allow room to work at first, and then be sure to protect the entry when counter trend signals are generated.

To some degree I did a good thing today. When I found myself out of synch and not sure which signals to believe in, I did not trade. I survived another day, I just did not contribute to paying the bills.

Trade Well, Trade Wise
John