How it went
Well… Not as good as I would have liked. My morning pre-market simulation trade, see earlier post, just set the stage for today. I wrote off too much of the morning signals and the price action after the FOMC “they” decided to “mix it up” and make a different price pattern. It almost worked, I started wanting to go short. I was too slow to draw my Fibonacci grid on the range of the report price action.
Luckily I slapped that grid on before getting short. The bad news is I let the long entry go by to wait for the next short signal. Now I’m watching the market go up without me. See the dark purple line on the chart.
Trade Log of My Trades.
Trade Pos. Entry Exit Entry Time Exit Time Result
1A Long 1510.5 1511.75 5/9/2007 8:57 5/9/2007 9:05 +0.75
1B Long 1510.5 1512 5/9/2007 8:57 5/9/2007 9:11 +1.5
My Take
1st half: 0.75 Points
2nd half: 1.5 Points
1B Long 1510.5 1512 5/9/2007 8:57 5/9/2007 9:11 +1.5
My Take
1st half: 0.75 Points
2nd half: 1.5 Points
Trade Narrative and thoughts about My Trades
How not to Enter – I settled on an entry price a little higher to get into this trade. Price action did come back and would have given me a little better entry. This worse position made me not hold the 1st half as long as I intend. My thought was to bank some profits and see how long the 2nd half could run. Well... I changed my mind and decided to bank more profits to play with later. Since my entry was not as good as I intended, I decided to try to grab profits and get a new entry. We will see…
Really tempted – I almost tried to reenter my long. I decided it was too soon and too close in price and I did not want a bad "revenge trade" after a profitable trade. Glad I waited now. Volume is very light. I just may end up waiting until after the bomb drops. The FOMC announcement that is. I’m leaning to the up side right now as my guess for the price action after the report. Playing with some Fibonacci levels, the low so far today is around 1509 which happens to be the 62% retracement of yesterday's range. Bears need to break that to go lower. See the light purple line on the chart.
Three signals to buy at the Pivot when it was holding there for 20 minutes. I wanted to see a press through the pivot to hit stops. That would have definitely enticed me long for sure. Too late, drew the Fib for the day’s tight range so far. The Pivot just happens to be the 62% Retracement level and need I say it held – so far it is off to the up side.
Really tempted – I almost tried to reenter my long. I decided it was too soon and too close in price and I did not want a bad "revenge trade" after a profitable trade. Glad I waited now. Volume is very light. I just may end up waiting until after the bomb drops. The FOMC announcement that is. I’m leaning to the up side right now as my guess for the price action after the report. Playing with some Fibonacci levels, the low so far today is around 1509 which happens to be the 62% retracement of yesterday's range. Bears need to break that to go lower. See the light purple line on the chart.
Three signals to buy at the Pivot when it was holding there for 20 minutes. I wanted to see a press through the pivot to hit stops. That would have definitely enticed me long for sure. Too late, drew the Fib for the day’s tight range so far. The Pivot just happens to be the 62% Retracement level and need I say it held – so far it is off to the up side.
Thoughts About Today
I need to stay in the game better. I could have done much better if I took some more trades with the plan to bail on the trade if the price action died for too long. There were definitely some dead spots, but I was on the right side for the trades I wanted to take all morning.
Just left that money on the table for someone else. :-(
After my comment about 1509 being the 62% retracement of yesterday’s range, I wanted to just place a “buy order” there and see if the market slammed down and hit it with the FMOC announcement. Would have made for a great trade. And somehow (much later in the day now) I started thinking short. Instead I should have seen the stop run below today's low and jumped on early to the up side. Live and learn.
Lessons Learned - Or still needing to reinforce
I need to stop trying to make up my mind for “what the market should do” and trade what I see.
I wrote off the morning as not good trading. While it was not the best I feel I should have taken more trades. Easy not that I see they worked. :-) Maybe these trades would be higher risk with the lower volume and tighter price action, but there were trades there that worked for decent profits.
I wrote off the morning as not good trading. While it was not the best I feel I should have taken more trades. Easy not that I see they worked. :-) Maybe these trades would be higher risk with the lower volume and tighter price action, but there were trades there that worked for decent profits.
I'd like to hear thoughts from others - am I better to stay out or jump into the fray more?
I either have to take some more risk or be content waiting for the “perfect” setup to occur. Knowing myself, I feel I need to get in there with more trades. Seems like days where there has been an “additional stop run” after my entry will repeat this scenario on future entries. Quieter days have not been putting in this additional move.
I either have to take some more risk or be content waiting for the “perfect” setup to occur. Knowing myself, I feel I need to get in there with more trades. Seems like days where there has been an “additional stop run” after my entry will repeat this scenario on future entries. Quieter days have not been putting in this additional move.
Trade Well, Trade Wise
John
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