Blogging Slowdown

Family issues have started that are impacting my blogging attempts. I hope to continue, but may have to add myself to my own "Blogs No More" section.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Continued NYSE Tick Weakness

Monday July 17th, 2007 ES Futures

The NYSE Tick is continuing to display weakness that is not typical of the ES price action. I started to really like the filter capability of the Cumulative Adjusted Tick or CAT Indicator. My problem of recent has been that the continued weakness in the Tick is severe enough to produce CAT readings that no longer match the ES price action and reducing the value of this indicator as a trade direction filter.

I have been playing with some modified Tick calculations. Currently I plan on maintaining the original calculation for the CAT indicator. But the modified calculations help me "see" when weakness in the Tick is producing a bad filter reading. More research will tell me if the modified calculations will help filter my trade directions.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Weak NYSE Tick Comment Link

Dr. Brett had some interesting comments on the recent weakness in the NYSE Tick that we have been seeing recently in a post today. Here is one of the comments I liked.

"What the Weak TICK Really Signifies - We saw an absence of buy programs among
the Russell 2000 stocks, keeping the TICK restrained."

Some people feel the Russell dynamics could be changing. The Russell is known for nice trend moves that usually cover a greater profit distance than the equivalent move in the ES. As of recent, the Russell seems to not make these "extended moves" as often.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Interesting Internals

Thursday July 12th, 2007 ES Futures

A real Gap and Go higher day. The NYSE Tick started strong but quickly fell back into a weak posture producing levels that would normally occur during a down trend in price. Not the case though, as the ES price kept powering higher for the majority of the day.

I found the market internals interesting today as well. My CAT Indicator was "Out-of-Synch" again for most of today. Similarly, the Advancing issues (ADV) and Declining Issues (DECL) in the chart below did not seem to match the ES futures price behavior either.

The Advancing Issues were relatively flat for the first 4 hours of trading while the Declining Issues kept increasing and increasing for the first 5 hours or trading.

The biggest decline of the day happened when price tested twice the first hours price range. The mystical 2X price of 1549 held initially and price retraced just below 1545. Then the ADV and DECL got in synch with the price action and produced a beautiful uptrend move. I caught the first half of this move. I knew I should have just walked away until near the close of the session, but I had to get cute with my stop and get chopped out (to the Tick) before price continued higher into the close.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Here We Go Again? Maybe...

Wednesday July 11, 2007 ES Futures

I did not trade today. Took some family time to to go see the new Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix movie at the local IMAX theater. I have liked other IMAX movies, but I left thinking I would have liked seeing this movie from a "normal" theater instead. I still would recommend the movie either way.

Back to the Charts - I found it interesting when I looked at the charts after the fact. Today would have been another "Out of Synch" day. To me, this means my CAT Indicator keeps telling me one thing (today to take short trades), but price is trending better in the opposite direction (today price was up more than down.

Since the July 4th Holiday, it seems to me that the NYSE Tick has been notably weaker. In the chart above, the Tick rarely touches the Green line. In a sustained up trend, the Tick will normally touch and produce extremes above this 1000 level frequently.

I can not wait until tomorrow to see what happens. Will we have a Gap down, will the NYSE Tick still remain weak, will it be a down day, or will price continue higher to the top of the channel we are currently trading in?

Time will tell.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Makes More Sense Now - Delayed Post

Tuesday July 10th, 2007

The NYSE Tick started out extremely weak. It took about 20 minutes for the Tick to get noticeably above the zero line. This weakness is not normal. Price did a "Gap and Go" lower. It was not obvious early in the day as price chop mostly sideways.

Combine today's weakness with yesterday's weak CAT Indicator readings and I started expecting a big down move was highly lickely and that price would not close the Gap. It took a ling time, but Price finally caught up to the CAT Indicator.

Trade Wise, Trade Well
John

Not What I expected - Delayed Post

Monday July 9th, 2007 ES Futures


I found Monday's trading out of synch most of the day. I'm fining my CAT indicator normally keeps me on the right side of the trend. Caught the first breakdown, but the ES price kept grinding higher while the CAT indicator was showing a weak day that usually would produce lower prices.


Just goes to show you that the market WILL do what it wants and not always follow the indicators. :-)

Trade Wise, Trade Well

John